Further Analysis of US Nursing Home Data Proves, Once Again, the Vaccines Made it More Likely for the Elderly to Die


For every nursing home where the infection fatality rate (IFR) decreased post-COVID vaccine there were 6.5 nursing homes where it increased by a comparable amount. That’s a disaster.

Updated 9/13/23

Executive summary

The US Nursing Home data is ground truth for the COVID vaccine. If it doesn’t work for the very population it was supposed to benefit the most, it’s all over.

This article is a continuation of my earlier article:

I can assure you, the COVID vaccine didn’t reduce the risk of a COVID death for the elderly or anyone else for that matter. It did the opposite.

Here are a few key arguments:

  1. There are no papers that take this “gold standard” data on the most important population for the and use it to show that the vaccines worked.
  2. “Experts” like UPenn Professor Jeffrey Morris are completely incapable of explaining how nursing homes like Apple Valley Village went from a 0 in 27 death rates before the shots to a 28 deaths in 90 infections just 4 weeks post-vaccine. It’s the same variant. How can it suddenly be more deadly?
  3. Data published in a paper in JAMA showed that at 128 Veterans Health Administration community living centers, the infection fatality rate (IFR) increased by 28% in residents who opted for the booster shots. While the increase was not statistically significant because the death numbers were too low, the trend was clearly in the wrong direction.
  4. I just finished analyzing each of the 15,197 nursing homes providing data to the CDC. It turns out that for every nursing home where there was an IFR mortality improvement, there were 6.6X where the rates were worse by a comparable amount. This is an utter disaster for the narrative. If the vaccines worked, it should have been the other way around. This is why all the pro-vaccine advocates avoid this data at all costs. A 6.6 odds of getting worse isn’t likely to have happened by chance (1126 homes vs. 169 homes).
  5. There is nothing wrong with the data. The data was used in a peer-reviewed paper published in JAMA, but that paper didn’t look at the IFR at all.
  6. The data is aligned with the first-hand anecdotes. For example, at Apple Valley Village the people who worked there saw a massive number of deaths right after the vaccines rolled out: the largest number of deaths in their history: 50 people in January 2021 which is roughly 1 out of every 3 residents in a single month. In a normal January, they will get just 5 deaths. How do “they” explain that? Apple Valley Village isn’t returning any phone calls. They don’t want to talk about it. I wonder why? Neither does anyone else. Professor Morris doesn’t want to talk about it at all.

Another anecdote

How do they explain anecdotes like this one? If the vaccine is safe and effective, such anecdotes should be impossible to exist:

A 75% death rate within 14 days?

This doesn’t surprise me at all because I found over 1,000 nursing homes in the CDC database where the death rate went up by a factor of 2 or more post-jab and over 100 nursing homes where the IFR jumped to 50% or more.

Another anecdote

Watch the below video done by James Devalon, a 10-year CNA… 5 cases, no deaths pre-vaccine. 14 deaths within 2 weeks post-vaccine. The vaccine is seriously injuring patients (they lose ability to walk, think, etc) and killing others. He realizes he’ll be fired for speaking out. He has nothing to gain.


The question is, if it wasn’t the vaccine causing these observations, what is causing them?

The vaccine is causing cases and deaths is consistent with what this nursing home employee observed. If there is a hypothesis that better fits the observations, I’d love to hear it.

Another anecdote

Have you noticed all the highly respected people who have, all of a sudden, decided to become “misinformation spreaders.” Have you ever asked yourself why?

The nursing home data

All the data and the software are in my github and have been publicly available since the time I first started looking at the data.

The analysis of cases and deaths 12 weeks before the vax rollout vs. 12 weeks after vax rollout can be found here (see the analysis 3 tab of the spreadsheet). You can see the 6.6 odds in that spreadsheet.

Where is their analysis of the data showing the vaccine was a huge success?

It doesn’t exist.

Next step

Next up: get other epidemiologists to acknowledge the data in plain sight, starting with those on our side of the narrative and progressing to those in the middle next.


I finally got record level data on the vaccine and just as predicted, it’s a disaster for the narrative. The CDC Nursing Home data shows very clearly that the COVID vaccines made things much worse for the elderly.

They don’t want to talk about it. But I do.

I will continue to focus on this like a dog on a bone.

It’s time for them to face the facts.

Original source: https://kirschsubstack.com/p/further-analysis-of-us-nursing-home